Predictive Model

An intentionally small race-explainer model built from realized race features. It is designed to highlight which factors travel with winning most often, not to claim strong out-of-sample forecasting from a tiny sample.

AC38 / AC75

Open AC38 / AC75 library

No predictive model data is available yet for this category.

AC38 / AC40

Open AC38 / AC40 library

Held-Out Accuracy

33.3%

Races

9

Boat-Race Rows

55

Features

12

Feature Importance

Feature Mean Coefficient Mean Absolute Coefficient
Relative upwind VMG (%) 0.1437 0.1437
Start speed at gun (kn) 0.1338 0.1338
Average tack loss (kn) -0.1121 0.1121
Start delay at gun (s) 0.0947 0.0947
Relative downwind VMG (%) -0.0907 0.0907
Tack rate per 10 min 0.0842 0.0842
Gybe rate per 10 min 0.0824 0.0824
Starboard gun-tack code 0.0706 0.0706
Average gybe loss (kn) -0.0654 0.0654
Distance loss first 90s (m) 0.0279 0.0302
Starboard-end start-side code 0.0221 0.0224
First over line flag -0.0047 0.0104

Held-Out Race Predictions

Race Predicted Actual Top Scores Result
26 05 22 CAG IPR Race 1 ITA G ITA G
ITA G (19.3%)
NZL G (16.8%)
NZL B (13.9%)
Correct
26 05 22 CAG IPR Race 2 ITA G NZL B
ITA G (23.4%)
NZL B (18.2%)
ITA B (17.7%)
Miss
26 05 22 CAG IPR Race 3 FRA ITA G
FRA (17.2%)
ITA G (16.0%)
SUI (12.5%)
Miss
26 05 23 CAG IPR Race 4 FRA NZL B
FRA (18.1%)
ITA G (17.2%)
NZL B (16.9%)
Miss
26 05 23 CAG IPR Race 5 ITA G ITA G
ITA G (30.1%)
NZL B (18.8%)
NZL G (17.6%)
Correct
26 05 23 CAG IPR Race 6 NZL B ITA G
NZL B (18.3%)
ITA G (18.3%)
NZL G (18.3%)
Miss
26 05 24 CAG IPR MR Final ITA B ITA B
ITA B (59.2%)
NZL B (40.8%)
Correct
26 05 24 CAG IPR Race 7 ITA B GBR G
ITA B (16.8%)
FRA (15.4%)
SUI (15.1%)
Miss
26 05 24 CAG IPR Race 8 GBR G ITA B
GBR G (18.0%)
GBR B (14.9%)
ITA B (14.2%)
Miss

AC37 / AC40

Open AC37 / AC40 library

Held-Out Accuracy

28.6%

Races

35

Boat-Race Rows

172

Features

12

Feature Importance

Feature Mean Coefficient Mean Absolute Coefficient
First over line flag 0.0728 0.0728
Distance loss first 90s (m) -0.0579 0.0579
Average tack loss (kn) -0.0423 0.0423
Start speed at gun (kn) -0.0293 0.0293
Average gybe loss (kn) 0.0250 0.0250
Gybe rate per 10 min 0.0237 0.0237
Relative downwind VMG (%) 0.0232 0.0232
Starboard-end start-side code -0.0219 0.0219
Tack rate per 10 min -0.0087 0.0093
Starboard gun-tack code -0.0082 0.0083
Relative upwind VMG (%) 0.0049 0.0058
Start delay at gun (s) 0.0052 0.0052

Held-Out Race Predictions

Race Predicted Actual Top Scores Result
VN Official Race 1 (Day 2) USA NZL
USA (29.1%)
ITA (23.9%)
FRA (23.6%)
Miss
VN Official Race 2 FRA SUI
FRA (22.1%)
SUI (22.0%)
USA (18.8%)
Miss
VN Official Race 3 GBR NZL
GBR (19.6%)
ITA (16.4%)
USA (16.3%)
Miss
VN Official Race 4 USA USA
USA (19.2%)
SUI (16.8%)
FRA (16.5%)
Correct
VN Official Race 5 NZL USA
NZL (26.6%)
ITA (18.9%)
GBR (18.6%)
Miss
VN Official Race Final USA USA
USA (54.2%)
NZL (45.8%)
Correct
Jeddah Official Race 1 NZL NZL
NZL (22.4%)
FRA (20.7%)
GBR (20.1%)
Correct
Jeddah Official Race 2 FRA NZL
FRA (20.4%)
USA (17.4%)
SUI (17.1%)
Miss
Jeddah Official Race 3 FRA ITA
FRA (37.4%)
SUI (33.8%)
ITA (28.8%)
Miss
Jeddah Official Race 4 NZL ITA
NZL (18.5%)
FRA (17.5%)
USA (16.5%)
Miss
Jeddah Official Race 5 GBR NZL
GBR (18.8%)
NZL (16.6%)
ITA (16.5%)
Miss
Jeddah Official Race 6 NZL NZL
NZL (19.0%)
ITA (17.1%)
FRA (16.4%)
Correct
Jeddah Official Race 7 SUI ITA
SUI (20.4%)
NZL (18.0%)
FRA (15.6%)
Miss
Jeddah Official Race 8 SUI NZL
SUI (23.9%)
NZL (19.3%)
GBR (19.2%)
Miss
Jeddah Official Match Final NZL NZL
NZL (55.6%)
ITA (44.4%)
Correct
24 09 14 BCN YAC Practice Race 1 AUS CAN GER NED ESP SWE NED Y SWE Y
NED Y (58.4%)
SWE Y (41.6%)
Miss
24 09 14 BCN YAC Practice Race 2 AUS CAN GER NED ESP SWE CAN Y AUS Y
CAN Y (21.8%)
NED Y (20.6%)
SWE Y (19.5%)
Miss
24 09 14 BCN YAC Practice Race 3 AUS CAN GER NED ESP SWE GER Y ESP Y
GER Y (30.1%)
SWE Y (24.2%)
AUS Y (23.1%)
Miss
24 09 14 BCN YAC Practice Start 1 AUS CAN GER NED ESP SWE ESP Y NED Y
ESP Y (19.3%)
NED Y (16.7%)
SWE Y (16.2%)
Miss
24 09 14 BCN YAC Practice Start 2 AUS CAN GER NED ESP SWE SWE Y NED Y
SWE Y (21.3%)
GER Y (20.8%)
ESP Y (20.4%)
Miss
24 09 15 BCN YAC Practice Race 1 FRA GBR ITA NZL SUI USA FRA Y FRA Y
FRA Y (22.6%)
SUI Y (18.6%)
GBR Y (15.2%)
Correct
24 09 15 BCN YAC Practice Start 3 FRA GBR ITA NZL SUI USA SUI Y USA Y
SUI Y (31.9%)
USA Y (24.5%)
NZL Y (23.3%)
Miss
24 09 15 BCN YAC Practice Race 2 FRA GBR ITA NZL SUI USA NZL Y NZL Y
NZL Y (35.6%)
ITA Y (33.1%)
GBR Y (31.4%)
Correct
24 09 15 BCN YAC Practice Race 3 FRA GBR ITA NZL SUI USA SUI Y SUI Y
SUI Y (56.4%)
FRA Y (43.6%)
Correct
24 09 15 BCN YAC Practice Start 1 FRA GBR ITA NZL SUI USA ITA Y GBR Y
ITA Y (20.0%)
GBR Y (17.8%)
USA Y (17.1%)
Miss
24 09 15 BCN YAC Practice Start 2 FRA GBR ITA NZL SUI USA SUI Y SUI Y
SUI Y (21.3%)
FRA Y (17.0%)
NZL Y (16.0%)
Correct
24 09 24 BCN YAC Final Series Race 1 USA Y SWE Y
USA Y (20.1%)
GBR Y (16.6%)
ITA Y (16.4%)
Miss
24 09 24 BCN YAC Final Series Race 2 USA Y USA Y
USA Y (19.4%)
ITA Y (17.0%)
AUS Y (16.2%)
Correct
24 09 24 BCN YAC Final Series Race 3 USA Y ITA Y
USA Y (18.7%)
AUS Y (17.0%)
SWE Y (16.9%)
Miss
24 09 24 BCN YAC Final Series Race 4 USA Y AUS Y
USA Y (19.2%)
ITA Y (17.1%)
SWE Y (16.9%)
Miss
24 10 11 BCN WAC Final Series Race 1 NZL W ESP W
NZL W (20.2%)
NED W (17.2%)
ESP W (15.8%)
Miss
24 10 11 BCN WAC Final Series Race 2 NZL W ITA W
NZL W (19.4%)
ESP W (16.9%)
NED W (16.1%)
Miss
24 10 11 BCN WAC Final Series Race 3 NZL W GBR W
NZL W (19.5%)
SWE W (16.5%)
ITA W (16.4%)
Miss
24 10 11 BCN WAC Final Series Race 4 NZL W ESP W
NZL W (19.9%)
GBR W (16.5%)
ITA W (16.3%)
Miss
24 10 12 BCN WAC Match Race Final GBR W ITA W
GBR W (54.9%)
ITA W (45.1%)
Miss

AC37 / AC75

Open AC37 / AC75 library

Held-Out Accuracy

68.5%

Races

111

Boat-Race Rows

222

Features

12

Feature Importance

Feature Mean Coefficient Mean Absolute Coefficient
First over line flag 0.1261 0.1261
Relative upwind VMG (%) 0.0752 0.0752
Distance loss first 90s (m) -0.0663 0.0663
Gybe rate per 10 min 0.0340 0.0340
Starboard-end start-side code -0.0275 0.0275
Average gybe loss (kn) 0.0271 0.0271
Tack rate per 10 min 0.0188 0.0188
Start delay at gun (s) -0.0164 0.0164
Relative downwind VMG (%) 0.0136 0.0138
Starboard gun-tack code 0.0100 0.0100
Start speed at gun (kn) -0.0098 0.0098
Average tack loss (kn) -0.0014 0.0026

Held-Out Race Predictions

Race Predicted Actual Top Scores Result
24 08 02 BCN OP2 S1P1 FRA GBR
FRA (62.1%)
GBR (37.9%)
Miss
24 08 02 BCN OP2 S1P1 2 GBR GBR
GBR (58.6%)
FRA (41.4%)
Correct
24 08 02 BCN OP2 S2P1 SUI SUI
SUI (62.7%)
ITA (37.3%)
Correct
24 08 02 BCN OP2 S2P1 2 SUI ITA
SUI (55.0%)
ITA (45.0%)
Miss
24 08 02 BCN OP2 S2P2 ITA ITA
ITA (59.0%)
SUI (41.0%)
Correct
24 08 02 BCN OP2 S3P1 NZL NZL
NZL (80.0%)
USA (20.0%)
Correct
24 08 02 BCN OP2 S3P1 2 NZL NZL
NZL (58.3%)
USA (41.7%)
Correct
24 08 02 BCN OP2 S3P2 USA USA
USA (56.6%)
NZL (43.4%)
Correct
24 08 02 BCN OP2 S4P1 GBR GBR
GBR (53.1%)
ITA (46.9%)
Correct
24 08 02 BCN OP2 S4P2 GBR GBR
GBR (57.1%)
ITA (42.9%)
Correct
24 08 02 BCN OP2 S5P1 NZL NZL
NZL (50.6%)
FRA (49.4%)
Correct
24 08 02 BCN OP2 S5P2 NZL NZL
NZL (58.1%)
FRA (41.9%)
Correct
24 08 02 BCN OP2 S6P1 USA USA
USA (53.3%)
SUI (46.7%)
Correct
24 08 02 BCN OP2 S6P2 USA USA
USA (56.9%)
SUI (43.1%)
Correct
24 08 03 BCN OP3 S1P1 SUI SUI
SUI (65.5%)
FRA (34.5%)
Correct
24 08 03 BCN OP3 S1P2 SUI SUI
SUI (81.1%)
FRA (18.9%)
Correct
24 08 03 BCN OP3 S2P1 ITA NZL
ITA (60.2%)
NZL (39.8%)
Miss
24 08 03 BCN OP3 S2P2 NZL NZL
NZL (59.3%)
ITA (40.7%)
Correct
24 08 03 BCN OP3 S3P1 GBR GBR
GBR (64.2%)
USA (35.8%)
Correct
24 08 03 BCN OP3 S3P2 GBR GBR
GBR (54.0%)
USA (46.0%)
Correct
24 08 03 BCN OP3 S4P1 SUI ITA
SUI (54.8%)
ITA (45.2%)
Miss
24 08 03 BCN OP3 S4P2 ITA SUI
ITA (57.5%)
SUI (42.5%)
Miss
24 08 03 BCN OP3 S6P1 NZL NZL
NZL (58.8%)
USA (41.2%)
Correct
24 08 03 BCN OP3 S6P2 NZL NZL
NZL (60.3%)
USA (39.7%)
Correct
24 08 13 BCN OP4 S1P1 NZL NZL
NZL (63.9%)
FRA (36.1%)
Correct
24 08 13 BCN OP4 S1P2 NZL NZL
NZL (57.7%)
FRA (42.3%)
Correct
24 08 13 BCN OP4 S2P1 GBR SUI
GBR (55.7%)
SUI (44.3%)
Miss
24 08 15 BCN OP5 S1 USA USA
USA (79.1%)
FRA (20.9%)
Correct
24 08 15 BCN OP5 S2 SUI NZL
SUI (53.0%)
NZL (47.0%)
Miss
24 08 15 BCN OP5 S3 FRA NZL
FRA (57.1%)
NZL (42.9%)
Miss
24 08 15 BCN OP5 S4 SUI SUI
SUI (56.5%)
USA (43.5%)
Correct
24 08 15 BCN OP5 S5 NZL NZL
NZL (55.2%)
FRA (44.8%)
Correct
24 08 19 BCN OP6 S1 USAvFRA USA USA
USA (57.6%)
FRA (42.4%)
Correct
24 08 19 BCN OP6 S2 GBRvNZL NZL NZL
NZL (50.6%)
GBR (49.4%)
Correct
24 08 19 BCN OP6 S3 USAvITA ITA ITA
ITA (60.0%)
USA (40.0%)
Correct
24 08 19 BCN OP6 S4 USAvGBR GBR USA
GBR (58.5%)
USA (41.5%)
Miss
24 08 19 BCN OP6 S5 FRAvGBR GBR GBR
GBR (54.8%)
FRA (45.2%)
Correct
24 08 19 BCN OP6 S6 NZLvITA NZL NZL
NZL (58.3%)
ITA (41.7%)
Correct
24 08 21 BCN OP7 S2 GBRvNZL NZL NZL
NZL (56.1%)
GBR (43.9%)
Correct
24 08 21 BCN OP7 S3 FRAvSUI SUI SUI
SUI (57.1%)
FRA (42.9%)
Correct
24 08 21 BCN OP7 S4 ITAvGBR ITA ITA
ITA (56.7%)
GBR (43.3%)
Correct
24 08 22 FPR1 Match 1 SUIvFRA SUI SUI
SUI (57.2%)
FRA (42.8%)
Correct
24 08 22 FPR1 Match 2 NZLvITA NZL NZL
NZL (65.3%)
ITA (34.7%)
Correct
24 08 22 FPR1 Match 3 USAvGBR GBR USA
GBR (58.6%)
USA (41.4%)
Miss
24 08 22 FPR1 Match 4 ITAvFRA ITA ITA
ITA (57.2%)
FRA (42.8%)
Correct
24 08 23 BCN FPR Match 5 SUIvUSA USA USA
USA (55.6%)
SUI (44.4%)
Correct
24 08 23 BCN FPR Match 6 GBRvNZL NZL NZL
NZL (59.3%)
GBR (40.7%)
Correct
24 08 23 BCN FPR Match 7 USAvITA ITA ITA
ITA (55.0%)
USA (45.0%)
Correct
24 08 24 BCN FPR Match 11 ITAvGBR ITA ITA
ITA (55.5%)
GBR (44.5%)
Correct
24 08 24 BCN FPR Match 12 NZLvSUI NZL NZL
NZL (58.5%)
SUI (41.5%)
Correct
24 08 24 BCN FPR Match 9 GBRvSUI GBR GBR
GBR (56.7%)
SUI (43.3%)
Correct
24 08 25 BCN FPR Final NZLvITA NZL NZL
NZL (55.5%)
ITA (44.5%)
Correct
24 08 25 BCN FPR Match 13 NZLvUSA USA USA
USA (57.3%)
NZL (42.7%)
Correct
24 08 25 BCN FPR Match 14 ITAvSUI ITA ITA
ITA (57.3%)
SUI (42.7%)
Correct
24 08 25 BCN FPR Match 15 FRAvGBR FRA GBR
FRA (55.4%)
GBR (44.6%)
Miss
24 08 29 BCN LV RR1 Match 1 FRAvSUI FRA FRA
FRA (60.0%)
SUI (40.0%)
Correct
24 08 29 BCN LV RR1 Match 2 ITAvNZL ITA NZL
ITA (58.2%)
NZL (41.8%)
Miss
24 08 29 BCN LV RR1 Match 4 FRAvITA FRA ITA
FRA (54.7%)
ITA (45.3%)
Miss
24 08 31 BCN LV RR1 Match 11 GBRvITA GBR ITA
GBR (60.1%)
ITA (39.9%)
Miss
24 08 31 BCN LV RR1 Match 7 ITAvUSA USA ITA
USA (56.8%)
ITA (43.2%)
Miss
24 09 01 BCN LV RR1 Match 12 SUIvNZL NZL NZL
NZL (54.2%)
SUI (45.8%)
Correct
24 09 01 BCN LV RR1 Match 13 GBRvFRA FRA GBR
FRA (55.7%)
GBR (44.3%)
Miss
24 09 01 BCN LV RR1 Match 14 SUIvITA SUI ITA
SUI (55.1%)
ITA (44.9%)
Miss
24 09 01 BCN LV RR1 Match 15 USAvNZL USA NZL
USA (58.7%)
NZL (41.3%)
Miss
24 09 03 BCN LV RR2 Match 17 NZLvITA ITA ITA
ITA (64.2%)
NZL (35.8%)
Correct
24 09 05 BCN LV RR2 Match 18 USAvGBR USA USA
USA (58.1%)
GBR (41.9%)
Correct
24 09 05 BCN LV RR2 Match 19 ITAvFRA ITA ITA
ITA (58.0%)
FRA (42.0%)
Correct
24 09 05 BCN LV RR2 Match 20 SUIvUSA SUI SUI
SUI (59.0%)
USA (41.0%)
Correct
24 09 05 BCN LV RR2 Match 21 GBRvNZL GBR NZL
GBR (54.9%)
NZL (45.1%)
Miss
24 09 05 BCN LV RR2 Match 24 FRAvNZL NZL NZL
NZL (57.7%)
FRA (42.3%)
Correct
24 09 07 BCN LV RR2 Match 22 USAvITA USA USA
USA (56.1%)
ITA (43.9%)
Correct
24 09 07 BCN LV RR2 Match 23 GBRvSUI GBR GBR
GBR (58.4%)
SUI (41.6%)
Correct
24 09 07 BCN LV RR2 Match 25 ITAvGBR GBR GBR
GBR (58.2%)
ITA (41.8%)
Correct
24 09 07 BCN LV RR2 Match 26 USAvFRA USA USA
USA (55.9%)
FRA (44.1%)
Correct
24 09 07 BCN LV RR2 Match 27 NZLvSUI SUI NZL
SUI (55.1%)
NZL (44.9%)
Miss
24 09 09 BCN LV RR2 Match 28 FRAvGBR GBR GBR
GBR (59.5%)
FRA (40.5%)
Correct
24 09 09 BCN LV RR2 Match 30 NZLvUSA NZL NZL
NZL (61.8%)
USA (38.2%)
Correct
24 09 09 BCN LV RR2 Match 31 GBRvITA GBR GBR
GBR (56.2%)
ITA (43.8%)
Correct
24 09 14 BCN LVS Match 1 ITAvUSA ITA ITA
ITA (53.4%)
USA (46.6%)
Correct
24 09 14 BCN LVS Match 1 SUIvGBR SUI GBR
SUI (56.8%)
GBR (43.2%)
Miss
24 09 14 BCN LVS Match 2 GBRvSUI SUI GBR
SUI (56.5%)
GBR (43.5%)
Miss
24 09 14 BCN LVS Match 2 USAvITA ITA ITA
ITA (55.1%)
USA (44.9%)
Correct
24 09 15 BCN LVS Match 3 GBRvSUI GBR GBR
GBR (69.8%)
SUI (30.2%)
Correct
24 09 15 BCN LVS Match 3 USAvITA ITA ITA
ITA (56.9%)
USA (43.1%)
Correct
24 09 15 BCN LVS Match 4 ITAvUSA USA ITA
USA (56.4%)
ITA (43.6%)
Miss
24 09 15 BCN LVS Match 4 SUIvGBR GBR GBR
GBR (54.8%)
SUI (45.2%)
Correct
24 09 16 BCN LVS Match 5 SUIvGBR GBR SUI
GBR (60.9%)
SUI (39.1%)
Miss
24 09 16 BCN LVS Match 5 USAvITA ITA USA
ITA (50.7%)
USA (49.3%)
Miss
24 09 18 BCN LVS Match 6 GBRvSUI GBR SUI
GBR (58.9%)
SUI (41.1%)
Miss
24 09 18 BCN LVS Match 6 ITAvUSA USA USA
USA (57.6%)
ITA (42.4%)
Correct
24 09 18 BCN LVS Match 7 GBRvSUI GBR GBR
GBR (55.8%)
SUI (44.2%)
Correct
24 09 18 BCN LVS Match 7 ITAvUSA USA ITA
USA (64.9%)
ITA (35.1%)
Miss
24 09 19 BCN LVS Match 8 USAvITA USA ITA
USA (57.0%)
ITA (43.0%)
Miss
24 09 26 BCN LV Finals Match 1 ITAvGBR ITA ITA
ITA (57.3%)
GBR (42.7%)
Correct
24 09 26 BCN LV Finals Match 2 GBRvITA ITA GBR
ITA (56.4%)
GBR (43.6%)
Miss
24 09 28 BCN LV Finals Match 3 GBRvITA ITA GBR
ITA (55.3%)
GBR (44.7%)
Miss
24 09 29 BCN LV Finals Match 4 ITAvGBR GBR ITA
GBR (55.0%)
ITA (45.0%)
Miss
24 09 30 BCN LV Finals Match 6 GBRvITA GBR ITA
GBR (56.2%)
ITA (43.8%)
Miss
24 10 01 BCN LV Finals Match 7 GBRvITA GBR GBR
GBR (62.8%)
ITA (37.2%)
Correct
24 10 01 BCN LV Finals Match 8 ITAvGBR ITA ITA
ITA (55.1%)
GBR (44.9%)
Correct
24 10 02 BCN LV Finals Match 10 GBRvITA GBR GBR
GBR (56.7%)
ITA (43.3%)
Correct
24 10 02 BCN LV Finals Match 9 ITAvGBR GBR GBR
GBR (56.8%)
ITA (43.2%)
Correct
24 10 04 BCN LV Finals Match 11 GBRvITA GBR GBR
GBR (56.2%)
ITA (43.8%)
Correct
24 10 12 BCN AC37 Match 1 NZL NZL
NZL (60.4%)
GBR (39.6%)
Correct
24 10 13 BCN AC37 Match 3 GBR NZL
GBR (57.5%)
NZL (42.5%)
Miss
24 10 14 BCN AC37 Match 4 NZL NZL
NZL (55.9%)
GBR (44.1%)
Correct
24 10 16 BCN AC37 Match 5 GBR GBR
GBR (58.6%)
NZL (41.4%)
Correct
24 10 16 BCN AC37 Match 6 GBR GBR
GBR (57.8%)
NZL (42.2%)
Correct
24 10 18 BCN AC37 Match 7 GBR NZL
GBR (57.3%)
NZL (42.7%)
Miss
24 10 18 BCN AC37 Match 8 NZL NZL
NZL (57.6%)
GBR (42.4%)
Correct
24 10 19 BCN AC37 Match 9 GBR NZL
GBR (57.7%)
NZL (42.3%)
Miss